Estimating BOP Kill-Line Failure Probability Combining High level and Experts Opinion Informations
Most deepwater oil prospection activities are carried out by dynamic positioning rigs. Due to the risks of such activities, these rigs are more often subject to emergency disconnections and, therefore, the blowout preventer (BOP), which is a safety equipment, must have high reliability level. Hence,...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Revista IEEE América Latina 2018-08, Vol.16 (8), p.2199-2206 |
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| creator | GEORGE FONSECA KAMPFFE, MILTON Abizethe de Carvalho Duim, Fernanda Adriano de Almada Garcia, Pauli Luiz da Cruz Saldanha, Pedro Magno Couto Jacinto, Carlos Brito Alves Lima, Gilson Luiz Santana Oliveira, Helton |
| description | Most deepwater oil prospection activities are carried out by dynamic positioning rigs. Due to the risks of such activities, these rigs are more often subject to emergency disconnections and, therefore, the blowout preventer (BOP), which is a safety equipment, must have high reliability level. Hence, BOP is used to ensure the safety of well drilling process and become one of the most important safety device available, and its reliability becomes even more critical, specifically its kill and choke line, which are especially important for well control. Considering the non-homogeneity of failure data available from BOP system, the main issue for reliability estimates is based on Bayesian inference. Due to the above-mentioned limitation, the present paper will present a simplified application considering a Bayesian fault tree approach for a typical BOP kill line failure probability. The results showed some advantages of considering such methodological approach that make possible to combine different information sources for reliability figures. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1109/TLA.2018.8528235 |
| format | Article |
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Due to the risks of such activities, these rigs are more often subject to emergency disconnections and, therefore, the blowout preventer (BOP), which is a safety equipment, must have high reliability level. Hence, BOP is used to ensure the safety of well drilling process and become one of the most important safety device available, and its reliability becomes even more critical, specifically its kill and choke line, which are especially important for well control. Considering the non-homogeneity of failure data available from BOP system, the main issue for reliability estimates is based on Bayesian inference. Due to the above-mentioned limitation, the present paper will present a simplified application considering a Bayesian fault tree approach for a typical BOP kill line failure probability. The results showed some advantages of considering such methodological approach that make possible to combine different information sources for reliability figures.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1548-0992</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1548-0992</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1109/TLA.2018.8528235</identifier><language>eng ; por</language><publisher>Los Alamitos: IEEE</publisher><subject>Bayes methods ; Bayesian analysis ; Bayesian Inference ; Blowout Preventer (BOP) Kill line ; Drilling rigs ; Failure ; Fault trees ; IEEE transactions ; Inductors ; Information sources ; Level (quantity) ; Offshore well ; Reliability ; Safety ; Safety devices ; Safety equipment ; Software ; Statistical inference ; Well drilling</subject><ispartof>Revista IEEE América Latina, 2018-08, Vol.16 (8), p.2199-2206</ispartof><rights>Copyright The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE) 2018</rights><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8528235$$EHTML$$P50$$Gieee$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,792,27903,27904,54736</link.rule.ids><linktorsrc>$$Uhttps://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8528235$$EView_record_in_IEEE$$FView_record_in_$$GIEEE</linktorsrc></links><search><creatorcontrib>GEORGE FONSECA KAMPFFE, MILTON</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Abizethe de Carvalho Duim, Fernanda</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Adriano de Almada Garcia, Pauli</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Luiz da Cruz Saldanha, Pedro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Magno Couto Jacinto, Carlos</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Brito Alves Lima, Gilson</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Luiz Santana Oliveira, Helton</creatorcontrib><title>Estimating BOP Kill-Line Failure Probability Combining High level and Experts Opinion Informations</title><title>Revista IEEE América Latina</title><addtitle>T-LA</addtitle><description>Most deepwater oil prospection activities are carried out by dynamic positioning rigs. Due to the risks of such activities, these rigs are more often subject to emergency disconnections and, therefore, the blowout preventer (BOP), which is a safety equipment, must have high reliability level. Hence, BOP is used to ensure the safety of well drilling process and become one of the most important safety device available, and its reliability becomes even more critical, specifically its kill and choke line, which are especially important for well control. Considering the non-homogeneity of failure data available from BOP system, the main issue for reliability estimates is based on Bayesian inference. Due to the above-mentioned limitation, the present paper will present a simplified application considering a Bayesian fault tree approach for a typical BOP kill line failure probability. The results showed some advantages of considering such methodological approach that make possible to combine different information sources for reliability figures.</description><subject>Bayes methods</subject><subject>Bayesian analysis</subject><subject>Bayesian Inference</subject><subject>Blowout Preventer (BOP) Kill line</subject><subject>Drilling rigs</subject><subject>Failure</subject><subject>Fault trees</subject><subject>IEEE transactions</subject><subject>Inductors</subject><subject>Information sources</subject><subject>Level (quantity)</subject><subject>Offshore well</subject><subject>Reliability</subject><subject>Safety</subject><subject>Safety devices</subject><subject>Safety equipment</subject><subject>Software</subject><subject>Statistical inference</subject><subject>Well drilling</subject><issn>1548-0992</issn><issn>1548-0992</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2018</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>RIE</sourceid><recordid>eNpNkMFLwzAUh4MoOKd3wUvAc2fStGlynGNzYmE7zHNI2nRmZElNOnH_vS2b4uk9eN_v9-AD4B6jCcaIP23K6SRFmE1YnrKU5BdghPOMJYjz9PLffg1uYtwhRBhlZATUPHZmLzvjtvB5tYZvxtqkNE7DhTT2EDRcB6-kMtZ0Rzjze2XcwC7N9gNa_aUtlK6G8-9Why7CVdufvYOvrvFhqPUu3oKrRtqo785zDN4X881smZSrl9fZtEwqXGRdUjDJ66LmnFKOK5ZTKqUiRYMRxaRCGVUS4Ybopmq4yrRiDKV1TlVONKkxUWQMHk-9bfCfBx07sfOH4PqXIsUkRQwXiPcUOlFV8DEG3Yg29ALCUWAkBpOiNykGk-Jsso88nCJGa_2H_15_AMJmbyA</recordid><startdate>20180801</startdate><enddate>20180801</enddate><creator>GEORGE FONSECA KAMPFFE, MILTON</creator><creator>Abizethe de Carvalho Duim, Fernanda</creator><creator>Adriano de Almada Garcia, Pauli</creator><creator>Luiz da Cruz Saldanha, Pedro</creator><creator>Magno Couto Jacinto, Carlos</creator><creator>Brito Alves Lima, Gilson</creator><creator>Luiz Santana Oliveira, Helton</creator><general>IEEE</general><general>The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. 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Due to the risks of such activities, these rigs are more often subject to emergency disconnections and, therefore, the blowout preventer (BOP), which is a safety equipment, must have high reliability level. Hence, BOP is used to ensure the safety of well drilling process and become one of the most important safety device available, and its reliability becomes even more critical, specifically its kill and choke line, which are especially important for well control. Considering the non-homogeneity of failure data available from BOP system, the main issue for reliability estimates is based on Bayesian inference. Due to the above-mentioned limitation, the present paper will present a simplified application considering a Bayesian fault tree approach for a typical BOP kill line failure probability. 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| subjects | Bayes methods Bayesian analysis Bayesian Inference Blowout Preventer (BOP) Kill line Drilling rigs Failure Fault trees IEEE transactions Inductors Information sources Level (quantity) Offshore well Reliability Safety Safety devices Safety equipment Software Statistical inference Well drilling |
| title | Estimating BOP Kill-Line Failure Probability Combining High level and Experts Opinion Informations |
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