Estimating BOP Kill-Line Failure Probability Combining High level and Experts Opinion Informations

Most deepwater oil prospection activities are carried out by dynamic positioning rigs. Due to the risks of such activities, these rigs are more often subject to emergency disconnections and, therefore, the blowout preventer (BOP), which is a safety equipment, must have high reliability level. Hence, BOP is used to ensure the safety of well drilling process and become one of the most important safety device available, and its reliability becomes even more critical, specifically its kill and choke line, which are especially important for well control. Considering the non-homogeneity of failure data available from BOP system, the main issue for reliability estimates is based on Bayesian inference. Due to the above-mentioned limitation, the present paper will present a simplified application considering a Bayesian fault tree approach for a typical BOP kill line failure probability. The results showed some advantages of considering such methodological approach that make possible to combine different information sources for reliability figures.