Polling and Prediction in the 2016 Presidential Election

Polling and Prediction in the 2016 Presidential Election

In the wake of experts' failure to predict the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, a rigorous analysis of what went right and wrong is needed to improve future polling. Despite claims that "data is dead," low-tech factors such as sampling errors and inaccurate likely-voter mode...

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Veröffentlicht in:Computer (Long Beach, Calif.) Calif.), 2017-05, Vol.50 (5), p.110-115
Hauptverfasser: Valentino, Nicholas A., King, John Leslie, Hill, Walter W.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Aftershock
data analysis
elections
Morality
prediction
Presidential elections
Sampling error
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:In the wake of experts' failure to predict the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, a rigorous analysis of what went right and wrong is needed to improve future polling. Despite claims that "data is dead," low-tech factors such as sampling errors and inaccurate likely-voter models were probably most responsible.
ISSN:0018-9162
1558-0814
DOI:10.1109/MC.2017.139