Capacity value estimation of wind power incorporating hourly wind speed

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show the effect of randomness of wind speed on the capacity value estimation of wind power. Three methods that incorporate hourly wind speed have been evaluated. Design/methodology/approach Wind speed is simulated using autoregressive moving average method and is included in the calculation of reliability index as a negative load on an hourly basis. The reliability index is calculated before and after the addition of wind capacity. Increment of load or alteration of conventional capacity will lead to capacity estimation. Findings Among the aforementioned three methods, the former two exclude the availability rate and give the exact value for wind capacity addition. The third method is based on the availability rate and provides a little higher capacity value, indicating a clear correlation between availability and capacity value. Originality/value The methods that exclude the availability rate show consistent results. By including the availability rate, the third method predicts the inverse relation between the availability rate and the capacity value.