Statistical Aspects of Reconstructing the 131I Dose to the Thyroid of Individual Living Near the Hanford Site in the Mid 1940s

In 1988 the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project was established to estimate (reconstruct) potential doses that may have been received by individuals from radionuclides emitted with air and water effluents from the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State, USA since 1944. This paper discusses some of the statistical methods being developed to assess the uncertainty in reconstructed doses to the thyroid from 131I via the air-pasture-cow-milk-human pathway in the 1944-47 period. Emphasis is placed on assessing dose uncertainties that arise from uncertainties in specification of model parameters.