Policing and crime: dynamic panel evidence from California

Abstract We exploit police and crime data from California over 26 years to construct a dynamic panel, which is then estimated using Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond techniques to address concerns about simultaneity, unobserved heterogeneity, and inertial effects in the policing-crime relationship. We fi...

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Veröffentlicht in:Oxford economic papers 2023-07, Vol.75 (3), p.750-779
Hauptverfasser: Lovett, Nicholas, Welsch, David M, Xue, Yuhan
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:Abstract We exploit police and crime data from California over 26 years to construct a dynamic panel, which is then estimated using Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond techniques to address concerns about simultaneity, unobserved heterogeneity, and inertial effects in the policing-crime relationship. We find no evidence that increases in police staffing lead to meaningful reductions in crime through either deterrence or incapacitation. Estimates are not wholly supportive of a compelling relationship between prior criminal offending and current police staffing; providing suggestive evidence that, at least within our sample, simultaneity bias may be more modest in nature than has been previously supposed in prior studies.
ISSN:0030-7653
1464-3812
DOI:10.1093/oep/gpac041