Determinants of land use in Maine with projections to 2050

Data on land use in Maine are assembled from USDA Forest Service inventories, the Census of Agriculture, and other sources. Regression analysis is used to estimate the relationships between land use and determinants of land use such as land rents and soil characteristics. The fitted models are used to project changes in land use to 2050. We project declines in private timberland area, though these losses are small on a percentage basis. Continued declines in agricultural land area and increases in urban land area also are projected. Land use policies that influence land rents such as preferential tax assessment programs can be used to deter socially undesirable land use changes.