Long-term fluctuations and recent decline of mussel populations in an Irish sea lough

ABSTRACT Intertidal mussels (Mytilus spp.) and their benthic invertebrate predators were monitored annually for 25 years at 10 sites within Lough Hyne Marine Reserve in southwest Ireland. Mussel abundance was relatively low in the early 1990s but increased substantially after the cold winter of 1995/1996. High mussel abundance was maintained until 2014 after which there was an abrupt decline leading to low levels in 2015–2019, when populations were dominated by older size-classes. Recruitment on benthic rock surfaces in 2018 and 2019 was low in contrast to that on an isolated mooring rope in deep water, suggesting mortality of recruits (e.g. from predation or benthic hypoxia). The generalist predatory starfish, Marthasterias glacialis, increased substantially during the study, with population peaks in 2005 and 2009 that mirrored the peaks of mussel populations. Predatory dogwhelks were not abundant at the monitoring sites and were never seen associated with mussels. Predators or other physical factors may have reduced recruitment, but the decline of the mussel population probably reflected increasing age and removal by wave action combined with consistently sparse recruitment.