A simulation model to predict seed dormancy loss in the field for Bromus tectorum L

Bromus tectorum L. (cheatgrass) is an invasive winter annual whose seeds lose dormancy through dry afterripening. In this paper a thermal after-ripening time model for simulating seed dormancy loss of B. tectorum in the field is presented. The model employs the hydrothermal time parameter mean base water potential (ψb(50)) as an index of dormancy status. Other parameters of the hydrothermal time equation (the hydrothermal time constant θHT, the standard deviation of base water potentials σψb, and the base temperature Tb) are held constant, while ψb(50) is allowed to vary and accounts for changes in germination time-course curves due to stage of after-ripening or incubation temperature. To obtain hydrothemal time parameters for each of four collections, seeds were stored dry at 20°C for different intervals, then incubated in water (0 MPa) or polyethylene glycol (PEG) solutions (−0.5, −1.0, −1.5 MPa) at 15 and 25°C. Germination data for the thermal after-ripening time model were obtained from seeds stored dry in the laboratory at 10, 15, 20, 30, 40, and 50°C for 0 to 42 weeks, then incubated at two alternating temperatures in water. Change in ψb(50) was characterized for each collection and incubation temperature as a linear function of thermal time in storage. Measurements of seed zone temperature at a field site were combined with equations describing changes in ψb(50) during afterripening to make predictions of seed dormancy loss in the field. Model predictions were compared with values derived from incubation of seeds retrieved weekly from the field site. Predictions of changes in ψb(50) were generally close to observed values, suggesting the model is useful for simulating seed dormancy loss during after-ripening in the field.