Forecasting school enrollments in the Australian Capital Territory
School enrollment forecasts are vital for effective planning. This study introduces a probabilistic multiregional population projection model, which accounts for different components, including preschool entries, migration, grade progression, and graduations. Using different distributions with a coh...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, Statistics in society Statistics in society, 2024-10 |
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Hauptverfasser: | , , |
Format: | Artikel |
Sprache: | eng |
Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
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Zusammenfassung: | School enrollment forecasts are vital for effective planning. This study introduces a probabilistic multiregional population projection model, which accounts for different components, including preschool entries, migration, grade progression, and graduations. Using different distributions with a cohort component projection and Monte Carlo simulation, this paper forecasts student enrollments for each school and academic year level in the Australian Capital Territory based on the annual record-level administrative data. In the in-sample validation tests, the model’s overall performance is robust, and the probabilistic design offers reliable prediction intervals reflecting the variation in observed values. The paper ends with a discussion on the importance of prediction intervals for informing school planning. |
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ISSN: | 0964-1998 1467-985X |
DOI: | 10.1093/jrsssa/qnae094 |