Sustainability of White Oak (Quercus alba) Timber Supply in Kentucky

Abstract White oak is a major commercial tree species and an important timber resource in Kentucky. However, current forest inventory trends from the Central Hardwood Forest Region (CHFR) reveal a sustainability threat from declining white oak regeneration and recruitment leading to a disproportionate inventory structure. Using Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data together with the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), we performed a base run analysis of projected inventory levels of white oak sawlogs to better understand whether the inventory level is sustainable to support the current harvest level of white oak in the future. The projections were further examined by tree grades to provide a general outlook on the quality of white oak timber growing in Kentucky’s forests in posterity. By doing so, we generated results that indicate that projected inventory levels of white oak sawlogs cannot be considered sustainable to support current harvest levels from 2058 onwards. In addition, the long-term trends in inventory levels of high-quality white oak sawlogs would be continuously declining whereas that of low-quality sawlogs would be steadily increasing. On the brink of these significant inventory shifts, our study calls for proactive forest management approaches to stabilize the white oak timber resource supply in Kentucky and beyond.