Evaluating the potential impacts of grey seal predation and fishery bycatch/discards on cod productivity on the Western Scotian Shelf and in the Bay of Fundy

The recovery of many groundfish stocks in the Northwest Atlantic has been impeded by elevated mortality among older/larger individuals. The sources of groundfish mortality are generally uncertain, though predation by growing grey seal herds and unreported fishing are thought to be drivers of mortality for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) on the Western Scotian Shelf and Bay of Fundy (4X5Y), as well as in nearby ecosystems. We developed a statistical catch-at-age model for 4X5Y cod that accounted for grey seal predation and bycatch/discards and tested the model across a broad range of consumption and discard scenarios. We found that most cod mortality was unexplained by seal predation and fishing when cod comprised a small to moderate portion of the grey seal diet. Predation and fishing accounted for slightly more than half of recent cod mortality when cod was highly prevalent in the seal diet (45% by weight) but explained little historical mortality. Bycatch was a minor source of mortality prior to 2019 and accounted for 0.%1–8.1% of recent mortality. Increased sampling of seal diets and monitoring of emerging seal colonies is necessary for reducing uncertainties around seal predation effects in the Northwest Atlantic.