Regional ocean models indicate changing limits to biological invasions in the Bering Sea

Abstract Minimal vessel traffic and cold water temperatures are believed to limit non-indigenous species (NIS) in high-latitude ecosystems. We evaluated whether suitable conditions exist in the Bering Sea for the survival and reproduction of NIS. We compiled temperature and salinity thresholds of NIS and compared these to ocean conditions projected during two study periods: recent (2003–2012) and mid-century (2030–2039). We also explored patterns of vessel traffic and connectivity for US Bering Sea ports. We found that the southeastern Bering Sea had suitable conditions for the year-round survival of 80% of NIS assessed (n = 42). This highly suitable area is home to the port of Dutch Harbor, which received the most vessel arrivals and ballast water discharge in the US Bering Sea. Conditions north of 58°N that include sub-zero winter water temperatures were unsuitable for most NIS. While mid-century models predicted a northward expansion of suitable conditions, conditions for reproduction remained marginal. Only 40% of NIS assessed (n = 25) had 6 or more weeks where conditions were suitable for reproduction. Our findings illustrate the potential vulnerability of a commercially important subarctic ecosystem and highlight the need to consider life stages beyond adult survival when evaluating limits to NIS establishment.