A 20-Year Temporal Change Analysis in Incidence, Presenting Phenotype and Mortality, in the Dutch IBDSL Cohort—Can Diagnostic Factors Explain the Increase in IBD Incidence?

Abstract Background The aim was to study temporal changes in incidence, disease phenotype at diagnosis, and mortality of adult inflammatory bowel disease [IBD] patients in South Limburg, The Netherlands, diagnosed between 1991 and 2010. In addition, the 2010 IBD prevalence was estimated. Methods A multi-faceted approach including hospital administrations, the national pathology registry [PALGA], and general practitioners led to the identification of 1162 patients with Crohn’s disease [CD], 1663 with ulcerative colitis [UC], and 84 with unclassified IBD [IBD-U]. Temporal changes in incidence, disease phenotype, and mortality were studied using linear, multinomial regression analyses, and standardised mortality rates [SMR], respectively. Results The annual incidences increased from 17.90/100000 in 1991 to 40.36/100000 in 2010 for IBD, from 5.84/100000 to 17.49/100000 for CD, and from 11.67/100000 to 21.47/100000 for UC [p < 0.01 for all]. A shift towards milder disease at diagnosis was observed over time [eg decrease of complicated disease in CD, increase of proctitis in UC]. IBD mortality was similar to that in the general population (SMR 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81–1.05), and did not change over time. The estimated IBD prevalence was 830/100000. Conclusions The IBD incidence in South Limburg increased significantly between 1991 and 2010. The shift towards milder disease at diagnosis in parallel with the improved diagnostics and ability to detect low-grade inflammation was suggestive of an important role of diagnostic factors in this increase. Environmental factors probably played a role as well. The mortality was low and, together with the increasing incidence, led to the high prevalence of IBD in South Limburg.