Comparative phylogeography and palaeomodelling reveal idiosyncratic responses to climate changes in Neotropical paper wasps

Abstract The impact of the broad disjunction between Amazonia and the Atlantic Forest on biodiversity has been the theme of several discussions in recent decades. Here, we evaluate the effects of dependence on humid environments and the role of historical factors on the level, distribution and structuring of genetic variation in widely distributed Neotropical insects. For such, we test whether climatically stable zones (i.e. refuges) in both Amazonia and the Atlantic Forest concentrate higher genetic diversity in the social paper wasps Angiopolybia pallens and Synoeca surinama. We found that historical events have avoided the interchange of A. pallens between both rainforests at least since the Early Pliocene and that ancient colonization in north-western Amazonia and the Bahia refuge significantly predicts genetic diversity in populations of this species. Conversely, the split between the Atlantic Forest and remaining western populations of S. surinama is more recent (Plio-Pleistocene); this species has considerably lower genetic diversity than A. pallens and such diversity is mostly concentrated in Amazonia and in the cerrado biome (savanna) than in the Atlantic Forest. Finally, we propose that the occurrence of species that exhibit such distribution patterns should be taken into consideration when establishing areas for conservation.