Hypoxic volume is more responsive than hypoxic area to nutrient load reductions in the northern Gulf of Mexico-and it matters to fish and fisheries

While impacts of low oxygen on marine organisms have been reviewed from physiological and ecological perspectives, relating broad population- and ecosystem-level effects to the areal extent of hypoxia (dissolved oxygen concentration below 64 M, or 2 mg l−1) has proven difficult. We suggest that hypoxic volume is a more appropriate metric compared to hypoxic area because volume better integrates the effects of hypoxia on ecological processes relevant to many marine taxa. In this paper, we compare the volume-based load responses from a simple biophysical model with results from an independent three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model, and discuss the implications with respect to potentially more ecologically-relevant hypoxia management goals. We also show that hypoxic volume appears more sensitive than hypoxic area to nutrient load reductions. Model simulations indicate that even under a modest 25% nitrogen load reduction, the thickness of the hypoxic layer in the northern Gulf of Mexico decreases markedly, and hypoxia remains localized to a relatively thin layer near the bottom that most fish and other mobile organisms can more effectively avoid. This finding should be considered when reviewing and potentially setting hypoxia management goals.