EU Accession and Croatia's Two Economic Goals: Modern Economic Growth and Modern Regulated Capitalism

Croatian society in general, and the economy in particular, are facing two major challenges: (1) the development of Modern Economic Growth (MEG), and (2) systemic change to Modern Regulated Capitalism (MRC). Neither of these challenges is new; but now, for the first time, they appear in the context of EU membership. The paper does not offer an unconditionally optimistic view. Accelerated economic convergence or MEG are not necessarily imminent, and EU membership may not necessarily lead to immediate Europeanization. To keep the process on track, the paper argues that three short-term goals deserve a central place: (1) consolidating support for market plus democracy types of reforms, (2) defining a proactive growth policy and increased growth rates and (3) Europeanization of the country. While there are many reasons to hope for a favourable outcome, we argue that the 'jury is still out' on both issues; and for Croatia, the biggest danger is the possibility of EU membership without MEG or MRC.