Teacher Predictions of Young Children's Literacy Success or Failure

Research into professional decision-making indicates that judgements tend not to be made on a rational, systematic basis, but are often formed rapidly and intuitively from a limited set of cues. This study addresses the issue of whether and how teachers assess the literacy competencies of young children prior to starting formal schooling in a UK context. Seven Reception teachers from four primary schools were asked to make literacy predictions for the incoming cohort of children aged 4 to 5 years. Data are presented based on interviews with the teachers, completion of baseline literacy assessments, and the scrutiny of daily reading records. The study explores the factors which influence teacher predictions for 30 children, including 17 for whom literacy success was predicted and 13 for whom literacy difficulties were anticipated. The study shows that teachers do indeed form early judgements about children based on pragmatic factors, with a strong link between teacher predictions and families' socioeconomic status. Importantly, initial representations of children as 'likely to fail' tend to become more permanent over time, whilst teachers are also inclined to provide less support for children expected to perform poorly. Implications for professionals are discussed in relation to the Code of Practice for identifying children with special educational needs and new guidelines for baseline assessment of children at school entry recently issued to UK headteachers.