A short term forecasting model for second home construction

Gerking S. D. (1979) A short term forecasting model for second home construction, Reg. Studies 13, 259-267. This paper presents a simple method for predicting second home construction activity that could be used in any economically developed country. It is argued that this problem is of importance since local planners can best work to mitigate the undesirable side-effects of second home construction when their probable numbers have been estimated in advance. The forecasting method itself is a Box-Jenkins univariate time series extrapolation of seasonal residential electric utility connections. These data serve as a proxy variable for the number of second homes. The method, which is illustrated using data from two Arizona counties, is shown to provide within sample period forecasts that are within tolerable error limits.