The Best Laid Plans: Postsecondary Educational Expectations and College Enrollment in Massachusetts

This article explores how college expectations in 8th grade change by 10th grade, and if students realize the expectations for a given level of college from 8th and 10th grade, in light of the "college for all" ethos. This study is based on administrative data from 235,875 public school students in Massachusetts from 2006 to -2016. Using a multinomial logistic regression, I find that students who plan to attend a 4-year college in grades 8 and 10 are 24% more likely to enroll in college and attend a 4-year institution than their peers who did not have such plans. However, students who plan to attend a 2-year college in both 8th and 10th grade are less likely to enroll in any type of college when compared to students who planned to attend a 4-year college and students who were unsure of their college plans. Further, both Black and Latinx students are less likely than their White peers to have college enrollment outcomes that mirror their expectations, after controlling for academic preparation. These results, which update prior research on expectation, have implications for increasing access to college for students who planned to attend college.