Conditional cash transfers, shocks, and school enrolment in Nicaragua

This work estimates the impacts of a Nicaraguan cash transfer programme that pays households conditional on school attendance and family visits to health clinics and seminars. A model explores the impact on school enrollment of cash transfers given differences in household wealth, labour market opportunities, and negative shocks. A difference-in-difference estimation for distinct wealth cohorts reveals that the programme led to a significant improvement in school enrollment outcomes among poor households in coffee-cultivating communities. The results cast doubt, however, on proposals that broadly link conditional cash transfers to negative shocks.