Predicting season ticket holder no-show behaviour: more nuanced evidence from Switzerland

In this article, we contribute to the emerging literature on the potential determinants of football spectator no-show behaviour by analysing disaggregated data capturing season ticket holder (STH) behaviour outside the German market for the first time. Intriguingly, our empirical analysis of a unique panel dataset - containing distinct admission decisions made by 8,734 STHs of an established Swiss Super League club on 72 consecutive matchdays between 2013 and 2016 - suggests that the antecedents of such no-show behaviour might be contextual, despite some notable similarities across markets. For instance, although we observe a robust role of both a STH's emerging no-show habits and his/her geographical distance to the stadium in predicting spectator no-show behaviour that is in line with previous research, we also note a more nuanced, i.e. non-linear, relationship between a STH's age and the tendency to omit attendance on matchday. Here, using three-dimensional contour plots to represent potential interactions with age graphically, we also observe that STHs in the age cohort around 35 to 65 are more affected by barriers in the form of distance to the place of residence or temperature compared to people of retirement age, for whom there is a very robust pattern of habit.