Validating the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) for applications in northern Europe: Ground magnetic perturbation validation

In this study we investigate the performance of the University of Michigan’s Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) in prediction of ground magnetic perturbations (Δ B ) and their rate of change with time (d B /d t ), which is directly connected to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). We use the SWMF set-up where the global magnetosphere provided by the Block Adaptive Tree Solar-wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) MHD code, is coupled to the inner magnetosphere and the ionospheric electrodynamics. The validation is done for Δ B and d B /d t separately. The performance is evaluated via data-model comparison through a metrics-based approach. For Δ B , the normalized root mean square error (nRMS) and the correlation coefficient are used. For d B /d t , the probability of detection, the probability of false detection, the Heidke skill score, and the frequency bias are used for different d B /d t thresholds. The performance is evaluated for eleven ground magnetometer stations located between 59° and 85° magnetic latitude and spanning about five magnetic local times. Eight geomagnetic storms are studied. Our results show that the SWMF predicts the northward component of the perturbations better at lower latitudes (59°–67°) than at higher latitudes (>67°), whereas for the eastward component, the model performs better at high latitudes. Generally, the SWMF performs well in the prediction of d B /d t for a 0.3 nT/s threshold, with a high probability of detection ≈0.8, low probability of false detection (