Probabilistic transmission network planning based on risk criteria

The proposed methodology introduces the risk concept, which takes into consideration the probability of the occurrence of different operating states, the probability of the outage of system elements, and the impact such outages would have on the electric power system (EPS). The impact on the EPS is assessed on the basis of a new indicator called impact on the grid, which takes into consideration all overloads caused by the outage of a particular element. The new methodology, based on a risk index, demonstrates the reliability of the EPS and provides background and arguments, useful for transmission system operators taking decisions regarding new investments on the transmission network (TN). The new methodology also contributes multi-selection criteria for determining priorities among individual investments, based on investment costs and on maintaining a sufficient level of reliability.