The Past Cold Winter and the Possibility of Long-range Weather Forecasting

MODERN meteorology has made notable advances in forecasting the weather of the next day, but when it attempts to predict the weather for more than a week ahead, the percentage of successes does not exceed fifty at the most. One reason for this failure is to be found in the refusal of the modern meteorologist adequately to take into account in the problem of weather prediction of direct terrestrial influences, such as that of the physical state of the surface waters of the oceans, even though he may be ready enough to take such an influence into account when dealing with one of those aerodynamical problems-for example, the life history of an Atlantic 'depression'-which he regards as lying within his particular province. Another reason is his neglect of the 'Polar Front' theory of Prof. Bjerknes, one of the greatest authorities on aerodynamics and hydrodynamics.