An ultrasonic guided waves based prognostic approach for predictive maintenance: Experimental study cases

This paper concerns the use of ultrasonic guided waves (UGW) in predictive maintenance (PM). Generally, PM is based on machine or process parameters such as current, voltage, temperature and pressure. However, research studies on the use of structural health monitoring (SHM) techniques in PM are seldom (to the best knowledge of the authors). Hence, the main purpose of the present study is to investigate the feasibility of using UGW, in order to reinforce the PM of a given installation. An approach that combines diagnostic and prognostic models is developed. The predictive model is hybrid and based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The built model is applied on data collected from two kinds of structures, namely flexible and rigid risers. Residual useful life (RUL) of each structure is estimated and compared with its simulated actual value. The paper provides a fruitful discussion about the applicability of UGW for prognostic as this is an important step in SHM and there is still a lack of research related to this topic.