Long-term mobility choice considering availability effects of shared and new mobility services

•The availability of e-bike sharing corresponds with an increased inclination to purchase a speed pedelec.•The introduction of e-car sharing correlates with a higher interest in purchasing speed pedelecs and electric cars.•The presence of Mobility-as-a-Service reduces the likelihood of buying speed pedelecs or electric cars.•Pedelecs serve as a complementary mode for private cars within mobility portfolios.•Dedicated high-speed bike lanes significantly enhance the adoption of speed pedelecs. E-bikes, shared and new mobility services such as Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) are emerging as sustainable and healthy alternatives to private cars, introducing complexities in household mobility decisions and potential substitution between transportation modes and services. However, existing studies primarily examined the potential long-term adoption of these emerging mobilities separately, leaving a gap in understanding the interplay among various emerging mobilities and conventional cars. This study therefore addresses this portfolio choice incorporating a stated portfolio choice experiment, encompassing pedelecs, speed pedelecs, MaaS, Shared e-Mobilities, and electric and conventional cars. Results from a random effects error component mixed logit model, based on an online survey conducted in the Netherlands, indicate significant availability effects of shared and new mobility services on personal mobility ownership decisions, and a substantial demand for pedelecs. The findings contribute to facilitating the adoption of emerging mobilities with enhanced synergy, as shared and new mobility services are gradually becoming available.