Exploring the long-term threshold effects of density and diversity on metro ridership

While numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of density and diversity on metro ridership, few studies have explored the long-term mechanisms of these effects. Employing smartcard data and multisource big data from Wuhan between 2015 and 2019, this study applied the panel threshold model to explore the long-term threshold effects of station area density and diversity on metro station-to-station ridership. The results indicated that only when development intensity and land use mix exceeded the threshold values would there be significant positive impacts on ridership at the origins and destinations, and the ridership benefits were significantly reduced when the origin intensity exceeded 1.622 or when the mix exceeded 0.635. Additionally, population density, POI mixture, bus stops and parking lots, station, and network attributes had long-term significant impacts on metro ridership. These findings can contribute to implementing differentiated land development patterns and promoting the sustainable development of TOD strategies.