Mobility impacts of a new metro system with transit-oriented development features

Few studies have analyzed the mobility impacts of TOD using a longitudinal research approach, and even fewer incorporated origin–destination (OD) information in the analysis. In this paper, we examine the impacts of a metro system with TOD features on the share of car and bus trips using Metro do Porto as a case study. The application of an autoregressive beta regression modeling approach to parish and OD data from two mobility surveys (2000 and 2017) allowed to detect changes in travel behavior accounting for pre-metro mode shares. Metro implementation was associated with strong reductions of the share of car trips in OD pairs with metro at both trip ends, especially when stations were TOD. Metro influence on the share of bus trips varied from neutral to positive, suggesting that bus and metro complement each other rather than compete for passengers.