The E-Bike Potential: Estimating regional e-bike impacts on greenhouse gas emissions

•Electric bicycles can substantially reduce a region’s transportation carbon emissions.•Most carbon emission benefits come from mode shift away from cars.•Net emission benefits are preserved when accounting for induced trips.•Electricity generation emission profile does not affect these benefits. Electric bicycles (e-bikes) have been found to offer a promising solution to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) impact of a region’s passenger transportation system. Using data from a North American survey of e-bike owners, a mode replacement model was adapted and augmented to consider the case of Portland, OR for various levels of e-bike person miles traveled (PMT) mode share penetration. It was estimated that for a 15% e-bike PMT mode share, car trip mode share could be reduced from 84.7% to 74.8%. Total car PMT per day could be reduced from 28.9 million to 25.5 million. Furthermore, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from passenger transportation could be reduced by 12% after accounting for e-bike emissions from electricity generation and induced e-bike trips. An individual e-bike could provide an average reduction of 225 kg CO2 per year. These estimates show that e-bikes have the potential to help cities and regions achieve their climate goals. Additionally, this research can be used to support policies and programs necessary to facilitate the growth of this emerging mode to realize carbon reduction impacts.