The diffusion of electric mobility in the European Union and beyond

•Incentives affecting purchase prices of BEVs increase their diffusion rate.•Financial incentives can speed up diffusion rate in moderate magnitude.•Tax-regulations and non-financial incentives do not affect the diffusion rate.•Autonomous diffusion speeds differ systematically between EU countries.•Rogers diffusion model predicts faster growth than Bass. This paper studies the diffusion process of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the European Union and beyond. Based on a logistic technology diffusion model, growth processes described by S-curves are predicted for a selction of 18 EU countries and five additional benchmark countries worldwide. This paper shows that for fixed upper bounds of the diffusion process, the investigated countries differ in terms of predicted diffusion speeds. Thus, the time for them to reach saturation in the number of adopters varies as well. In order to understand these different diffusion processes and their determinants, the factors influencing the diffusion speed in a subsample of 14 European countries are empirically analyzed. In addition to investigating country fixed effects and socio-economic factors, this paper focuses on government incentives and their impact on the diffusion rate. The paper reveals that financial incentives in the form of purchase price advantages do play an important role in this context. At the same time, the analysis does not confirm a significant impact of tax regulations and non-financial incentives on the diffusion speed.