Long-term effects of conservation tillage on soil erosion in Central Europe: A random forest-based approach

•Long-term, field-scale comparative study of conventional and conservation tillage.•Novel runoff and soil loss data from warm-summer humid continental climate zone.•Soil loss an order of magnitude below its tolerable value on conservation tillage.•Random Forest modelling was used to analyse runoff and soil loss data of 16 years. Conservation tillage (CT) is of primary importance in food security, soil conservation, and sustainable development, even though its comprehensive effects on runoff (RO) and soil loss (SL) are still not fully understood. In 2004, a field-scale study was launched in southwest Hungary to investigate the long-term (16 years) effects of CT on RO, SL and soil, under a warm-summer humid continental climate. Four, especially large, 1200 m2 plots (2 ploughing tillage (PT) and 2 CT) were established, using a special, two-channel collection system. By the end of the study period, significantly higher water-stable aggregates (PT: 20.0 %, CT: 30.4 %), higher soil organic matter (PT: 1.4 %, CT: 1.9 %), greater earthworm abundance (4.9 times that in PT plots) was recorded on the CT plots. Conservation tillage decreased surface RO by 75 % and SL by 95 %. The difference between PT and CT was significant for mean annual soil erosion, with values of 2.8 t ha−1 and 0.2 t ha-1, respectively. The exceedance of extreme precipitation events was