Novel optimized models to enhance performance forecasting of grid-connected PERC PV string operating under semi-arid climate conditions

•An in-depth investigation for modeling and forecasting grid-connected PERC PV string performance has been conducted.•New mathematical models for DM and BM shape parameters as functions of temperature and irradiance have been introduced.•Novel analytical formulas relating DM shape parameters to key PV metrics have been derived.•Proposed models have been validated using real-world data of grid-connected PERC PV string serving in Benguerir, Morocco.•A strong agreement between predicted and measured PV performance has been demonstrated. This study focuses on modeling and forecasting the performance of a grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) string, aiming to enhance the accuracy of output power prediction, which is crucial for the effective management and stability of the electrical grid. While previous research has extensively examined PV modules, there is a notable lack of studies specifically targeting PV string behaviors, especially in harsh climates prevailing in semi-arid regions. This study addresses this gap by investigating the modeling and performance prediction of a Passivated Emitter Rear Cell (PERC) PV string under semi-arid climate conditions using analytical and predictive approaches based on both implicit and explicit models as Single Diode Model (SDM), Das Model (DM), Boutana et al. Model (BM) and Power Law Model (PLM). New mathematical models of DM and BM shape parameters versus temperature and irradiance along with novel analytical formulas giving DM shape parameters as a function of PV metrics have been introduced. The proposed approaches are validated using real measurements of a PERC PV string incorporating 12 JKM405M-72H PV modules operating at Green Energy Park (GEP) research facility in Morocco. The reliability of these approaches is assessed by comparing I-V curves, P-V curves and peak power generated and predicted by SDM, DM, BM and PLM to actual measurements. The comparison reveals that generated and predicted outcomes align well with measured data, with an average value of Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) not exceeding 4.16 % for all models throughout the day. The findings indicate that the proposed approaches effectively predict the performance of the PERC PV string, accounting for climatic influences and providing insights into optimizing PV system performance, thereby contributing to improved grid stability in semi-arid regions.