A method for determining the probability of seabed liquefaction considering stratigraphic structure and variations in soil dynamic characteristics

Existing research on soil liquefaction probability discrimination usually only considers the inherent variability of soil parameters, neglecting the impact of stratigraphic variability. To address this, the study couples an embedded Markov chain model with a conditional random field model to simulate the spatial variability of both stratigraphy and soil parameters simultaneously. The Yangtze River Delta region in China, due to its unique geographical location, is highly sensitive to secondary disasters such as soil liquefaction triggered by earthquakes. This study uses measured borehole data from the coastal area of the Yangtze River estuary in the region, employing the embedded Markov chain model to simulate stratigraphic structural variability and the conditional random field model to simulate soil dynamic parameters. The simulation results are used to assess the liquefaction probability of seabed sites under seismic conditions, providing a scientific basis for the site selection and safety evaluation of marine engineering projects. The research indicates that considering the spatial variability of both stratigraphy and soil parameters is crucial for accurately assessing liquefaction potential. •Simulated liquefaction considering both strata and soil parameter variability.•Compared liquefaction results with and without considering strata variability.•Discussed the model's error range and its impact on liquefaction accuracy.