A framework for rapid seismic performance and fragility analysis of earth slopes considering uncertainties

It is acknowledged that various sources of uncertainties play a vital role in the seismic vulnerability of slope systems, while many studies ignore these sources in seismic assessments. This is because seismic performance and fragility evaluation of large soil-structure systems is challenging and computationally intensive by conventional nonlinear dynamic analysis methods, especially when the modeling uncertainties are considered. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a new framework for addressing uncertainties in the seismic evaluation of earth slopes using the Endurance Time Analysis (ETA) method. The ETA method is a dynamic pushover procedure in which the slope is subjected to a limited number of artificial intensifying records, and seismic responses are obtained over a continuous range of seismic intensities. For the purpose of this study, probabilistic two-dimensional numerical simulations of earth slopes are created using the FLAC software by considering the soil parameters uncertainty. Latine Hypercube Sampling is employed to generate random simulations. The models are then subjected to the intensifying prefabricated excitations based on the ETA method, and the fragility curves of the slope are obtained in three damage states by considering and not considering uncertainties. The results indicate that as the endurance time, which is a kind of intensity measure, increases, the uncertainties of seismic responses also increase. This shows that the effects of uncertainties become more significant when the slope is subjected to strong ground motions. Additionally, the influence of modeling uncertainty is negligible in the slight damage state, but significant in the extensive damage state. The proposed framework provides an effective and rapid way for performing the fragility and associated risk analysis of earth slopes considering uncertainties. •An efficient framework is proposed for incorporating uncertainties in fragility and vulnerability assessment of earth slopes.•The ETA method is utilized to significantly reduce the required computer run time in nonlinear dynamic analyses.•Ignoring the variability of soil properties can lead to a significant underestimation of the failure probability outcomes.•The OVAT analysis is performed to identify the influence of random variables on annual failure probability of the slope.