Transport infrastructure and economic performance: An evaluation of the Milan-Bologna high-speed rail corridor

This paper evaluates the impact of high-speed rail on the economic performance of the Milan-Bologna corridor in Northern Italy in terms of gross value added, distinguishing between services and manufacturing. The evidence-based impact assessment is carried out through propensity score matching difference-in-differences, event study, and synthetic control methods using NUTS 3 provincial panel data 2000–2018. The results suggest overall positive effects for the NUTS 3 provinces directly exposed to the programme. Still, sectoral heterogeneities arise depending on the specialization of the place hosting a high-speed railway stop. Moreover, different magnitudes occur depending on whether or not a high-speed station is located in a central place. •HSR impacts on the economic performance of the Milan-Bologna corridor are evaluated.•Evidence-based impact assessment suggests overall positive effects of HSR.•HSR in central vs. intermediate cities lead to varying magnitude in the effect.•Sectoral heterogeneity of GVA between services and manufacturing industries emerges.