Past-to-future resources utilization efficiency and cross-regional compensation strategies in urban agglomerations driven by environmental footprint dynamic assessment

•Environmental sustainability is evaluated by ecological-carbon-water footprint model.•Resources utilization efficiency under SSPs is explored by an ensemble inversion model.•Cross-regional ecological compensation schemes considering green development are given.•The UAD would pay the highest ecological compensation to the UAC and UAM under SSP3.•Environment-oriented EFG, CFG, and WFG would reduce by 4.30−47.68 % under SSP5. This study evaluates ecological-carbon-water footprints, resources utilization efficiency, and their future dynamic evolution in three typical urban agglomerations across the Yangtze River Economic Belt based on scenarios design and an ensemble inversion model. Past-to-future comprehensive ecological compensation strategies are given for enhancing the regional balanced development. Results reveal that the spatial correlation among urban agglomerations is intensified according to a modified gravity model. The past ecological-carbon-water footprints and their corresponding resources utilization efficiency increase by (64.50 %, 97.09 %, 14.44 %) and (79.03 %, 74.89 %, 84.95 %), respectively. As for their future dynamics, those under combined economy-oriented and SSP3 condition would significantly deteriorate, while environment-oriented resources utilization efficiency would improve. By 2050, the upstream urban agglomeration would have a smaller environmental footprint and higher resources utilization efficiency than those of other urban agglomerations. The compensation amount paid by the downstream urban agglomeration to the upstream and midstream urban agglomerations falls from ¥65.64 × 1010 to ¥62.39 × 1010. This compensation mode would be basically unchanged under different scenarios, especially under SSP3 with an amount of ¥80.00 × 1010 in 2050. Findings can provide practical guidance for the regional high-quality development, and assist in them moving towards world-class urban agglomerations.