Carbon reduction analysis of electric heat pumps in carbon neutrality in China

•Electric heat pump is a reliable option to carbon neutrality in medium-low temperature heating.•Maximum carbon reductions of electric heat pump reach 1453 million tons in 2060.•Electric heat pumps contribute to flexible electricity usage and power grid peaking.•Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from electric heat pump refrigerants is critical. Electric heat pumps align with the trend towards electrification of end-use energy in achieving carbon neutrality. To exhibit the carbon reduction potential of applying electric heat pumps in medium-low temperature heating in China, a carbon emission model considering variations in demand, green electricity, and heat pump scale was established. Results show that under the high electric heat pump growth scenario, the total carbon reductions from buildings, industries, and agriculture sectors in 2060 are 2.506 billion tons, with electric heat pumps contributing 1.453 billion tons which is equivalent to 14.7% of China's total current carbon emissions. Compared to direct electric heating, heating by electric heat pumps can reduce national electricity loads by 67.6% and annual electricity consumption by 64.9% in 2060. Furthermore, electric heat pumps can be actively applied to realize electricity-grid peak regulation, and the leakage of refrigerants should be restricted. Electric heat pumps are, therefore, an essential option for a carbon neutrality roadmap in medium-low temperature heating. Policies should be recommended to promote heat pump application in various sectors and reduce refrigerant greenhouse gas emissions.