Long-term implications of electric vehicle penetration in urban decarbonization scenarios: An integrated land use–transport–energy model

•The framework of an integrated land use–transport–energy model is demonstrated.•The integrated model depicts land use–transport–energy interactions, with explicit spatial representations.•A stringent EV penetration scenario up to 2050 was analyzed using the model.•Impacts on land use, transport, energy profiles, and welfare associated with EV adoption varied spatially across zones.•The spatial differentiation of policy effectiveness deserves more attention. Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered a promising technology and an attractive solution for a low-carbon future. It is therefore necessary to model the market penetration of EVs and determine the role of EV adoption in future urban decarbonization scenarios. This study developed an integrated land use–transport–energy model to examine interactions between location choice, land use, transport patterns, energy profiles, and economy when implementing a stringent EV policy. Two scenarios were structured to investigate the long-term (to 2050) impacts of EV adoption on population distribution, land use patterns, transport demand, energy mix, emission profiles, and social welfare. Scenario simulations showed that ambitious market diffusion of EVs is likely to have significant positive effects on emission reduction in city centers, while economic benefits tend to occur in suburban areas, implying that EV adoption will play an important role in the spatial organization and structure of cities. The spatial heterogeneity of different urban zones requires more attention when evaluating the effectiveness of sustainable urban policies. Because disaggregated spatial interactions can be handled by the new integrated model, the methodology proposed here will be a useful tool for sustainable urban planning.