Assessment of climate change impact on the water footprint in rice production: Historical simulation and future projections at two representative rice cropping sites of China

As one of the most important crops cultivated in China, rice contributes to approximately 28% of total yield. In despite of the substantial production, rice productivity is gravely affected by ongoing climate change and reduction of available water resources. Thus, assessing the responses of rice water consumption and productivity to more pronounced climate change is of great significance to water resources management in terms of relieving the resources shortage and meeting the food demand. In this study, the yield and water resources utilization during 1961–2010 in two typical rice plantation regions of China were evaluated using validated rice model ORYZA2000. Subsequently, their responses to future climate scenarios of 21 century were investigated through driving ORYZA2000 with downscaling climatic projections from GCMs under four RCPs emission scenarios. To quantify the water resources utilization in rice production from multiple perspectives, the water footprint (WF) and three water productivity indices (WPI, WPU and WPET) were integrated for assessing the regional agricultural water stress in this paper. The results revealed that the annual average linear inclining rates of WF in two stations (Kaifeng and Kunshan) were 3.86 m3/ t and 2.62 m3/ t, respectively. Moreover, compared with the green water footprint (WFg), the blue water footprint (WFb) is projected to significantly increase in future. The water productivity (WP) would decrease in two stations under four RCPs scenarios except that the WPu and WPET of Kunshan under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenario in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Hence, this study provides insights into comprehensively understand the influences of climate change on food security and sheds lights on the regional strategy for future water resource management. [Display omitted] •The study pioneers the use of ORYZA model along with GCM outputs in rice WF assessment under climate change.•The rice WFs of two stations are projected to increase in future.•Decrease in CWUgreen of Kunshan does not affect incremental WFg due to the decline in future rice yield.•Compared with WFb, the WFg of study area play a dominant role in the growth of future rice WF.