Evaluating offshore wind power potential in the context of climate change and technological advancement: Insights from Republic of Korea

Offshore wind power is constantly being invested and expanded around the world. National plans for wind power generation must be evaluated in light of climate change and technological advancement since wind speed changes at sea level due to climate change along with continuous technological development significantly affect the wind power generation potential. Republic of Korea has set ambitious plans to develop and expand large-scale offshore wind power generation and with the aim of accurately predicting domestic wind power generation potential, the current study analyzed the patterns and consequences of changes in wind speed due to climate change. Furthermore, the contribution of developing a 15 MW large-scale wind power generator to the national target for offshore wind power generation was evaluated. Changes in wind speed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were examined for 10-year interval changes and for seasonal variabilities from 2010 to 2100. Results indicate that the wind speed would continuously decrease in the RCP 8.5 scenario, suggesting that failing to reduce greenhouse gas emission would eventually lead to loss of wind resources and resultant decline in wind power generation. Analyses also revealed that installing 3 MW wind turbines (utilization rate of 22%) or 15 MW wind turbines (utilization rate of 29%) can respectively achieve 40% or 55% of the national electricity production target for 2030. Assuming an aggressive deployment in high wind speed areas, it was found feasible to achieve up to 64% of the 2030 target, and even 100% but with a high utilization rate of 42%. •Offshore wind speed weakened in the RCP 8.5 scenario, indicating a potential decline in electricity generation.•Stable wind speed in the RCP 4.5 scenario emphasizes the necessity of greenhouse gas reduction to secure wind power supply.•Due to declining wind speeds, Republic of Korea is only expected to achieve 64% of its wind power plan by 2030.•By introducing large-scale wind turbines and improving utilization rate to 42%, Republic of Korea can meet its national energy target.