Understanding transformational complexity in centralized electricity supply systems: Modelling residential solar and battery adoption dynamics

Residential battery energy storage with solar deployed at scale will amplify operational complexity in electricity markets. If the technology is poorly integrated, it could impact the efficient provision of electricity while increasing political resistance to a technology that could achieve positive climate change mitigation outcomes. To better understand the factors that will underpin battery adoption, a system dynamics model has been developed to examine rates of deployment and how they may impact electricity supply in the case study area of Queensland, Australia. The model shows that across several scenarios, battery adoption in Queensland is likely to achieve mass-market uptake in coming years. Rates of adoption are a function of complex interactions between endogenous and exogenous variables. Impacts in one part of the supply chain, be it the unilateral action of a market participant, introduction of government policy or an exogenous influence such as extreme weather events, not only increase battery adoption but can also reinforce several endogenous feedback loops. This effects electricity prices and strengthens non-financial motivations, driving even larger increases in battery adoption. Importantly, the model also shows that proactive efforts to integrate the technology in an efficient manner can drive beneficial outcomes along the supply chain. •Scenario analysis shows mass market adoption of batteries in Queensland is likely.•Self-sufficiency drivers will accelerate adoption and may increase negative impacts.•This includes electricity price increases, poor asset utilization and inequality.•Proactive integration efforts are urgently needed to maximize sector benefits.