Contrasting response of regional spring Arctic Sea ice variations on Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Understanding the relationship between Arctic Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is crucial for analysing regional climate change. Present study investigates this connection using satellite observations and simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 coupled climate models, focusing on external forcing from 1979 to 2021. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis identified the dominant mode (PC1) of ISMR, explaining 31.7% of the variance with significant regional variability. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis revealed a maximum covariance of 41.1% during spring between Arctic SIC observations and ISMR. Leading SVD correlations for the multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) simulations of spring Arctic SIC were 30.6% (CMIP5) and 42.8% (CMIP6). Our results demonstrate a significant correlation between ISMR PC1 and observed Arctic spring SIC (r = −0.25, p