Mapping the path forward: A prospective model of natural resource depletion and sustainable development

This paper introduces a sustainable development model of natural resource depletion that quantifies the optimal relationship between the two. Adopting a nested constant elasticity-of-substitution production function with easy substitution between capital and natural resource depletion, the derived model that was simulated prospectively for the time horizon 2020–2100 reveals a non-linear pattern of natural resource depletion, with a minimum of 0.735 million tons, projected for the year 2100. Sustainable development exhibits a quasi-inverse U shape, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of sustainable development. The model predicts two distinct relationships between sustainable development and natural resource depletion, depending on the existence of a 6 billion tons threshold for natural resource depletion. Supported by the Regression Discontinuity Design, a positive relationship was established below the threshold point in opposition to a negative association above this cutoff level. This model is a valuable tool for policymakers to monitor and inform sustainable development policies with regard to natural resource depletion. •The model optimizes a nested CES production function with easy substitution between capital and natural resource depletion.•Results over 2020–2100 reveal non-linear patterns for both natural resource depletion and sustainable development.•The model predicts distinct relationships conditioned on a 6 billion tons threshold for natural resource depletion.•A positive relationship emerged below the threshold point; above, a negative association prevailed.