Exploring the risk and economic vulnerability of global energy supply chain interruption in the context of Russo-Ukrainian war

The Russo-Ukrainian war intensified the risk of global energy supply chain disruption, causing not only sharp fluctuations in energy prices in a short period of time but also disruptions to the global energy supply and economic and trade orders, with profound effects on global political and economic patterns in the long term. To explore the macroeconomic impact of the energy interruption caused by the Russo-Ukrainian war, a global multi-regional, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model was used for the empirical analysis. The results show that trade interruption alone would significantly impact the Ukrainian economy, causing its real GDP to fall by 4.18%. However, if the United States (US) and the Europe Union (EU) stop importing energy from Russia, the latter's economy will suffer a devastating blow, with a maximum decline in its real GDP reaching 5.49%. Developed countries are likely to incur heavy economic costs owing to their energy sanctions imposed against Russia. However, these costs are mainly borne by European nations, whereas the US suffers limited economic losses. Moreover, the Russo-Ukrainian war has limited impacts on global carbon abatement. In the strictest scenario, global energy consumption and carbon emissions will decrease by 0.600% and 0.915%, respectively. Exploring the boundary effects of the Russo-Ukrainian war on economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions is useful for understanding the complex relationship between geopolitical conflicts, natural resource utilization, and carbon emissions. •The interruption of energy trade caused by the Russia-Ukraine war was investigated.•The separate Russia-Ukraine war has a great impact on Ukraine's economy.•The energy ban adopted by the US and Europe will severely hit the Russian economy.•The economic loss suffered by the EU is much higher than that of the US.•Russia-Ukraine War will profoundly affect the energy strategies of major countries.