Evolving cobalt cycle and urban mines in the EU, 1988–2020

•Constructed a comprehensive evaluation model for urban cobalt mines that explicitly considers recovery efficiency at different stages.•The evolution of the EU cobalt cycle and in-use stocks has a profound impact on urban cobalt mines recycling.•Loss in urban cobalt mine recycling in the EU mainly occurs in the collection and pretreatment stages, up to 87 %.•Provided valuable insights into EU cobalt resource management and safe supply of cobalt resources. Urban mines are vital for resource security and resilience, but the intricacies of their recycling processes are often overlooked. This study uses dynamic Material Flow Analysis to delve into the EU's cobalt cycle from 1988 to 2020, focusing on urban cobalt mining potential. We observed a significant shift in EU cobalt consumption patterns, with the demand for electric vehicle batteries surpassing that for superalloys, thereby positioning batteries as the primary cobalt consumers. Moreover, batteries increasingly dominate the cobalt in-use stock. The recycling process experiences substantial losses, especially in collection and pretreatment stages, reaching up to 87 %. Our findings indicates that urban cobalt mines could account for 57–66 % of the EU's total cobalt consumption, amounting to 166–193 kt in a high scenario. These insights emphasize the changing dynamics of the EU cobalt cycle and the importance of efficient urban cobalt mine management. [Display omitted]