CO2 emission-mitigation pathways for China's data centers

•Combined macro-level CO2 models with empirical data for a holistic carbon emissions view in China's data centers.•Identified expansive computing scale as a primary driver for CO2 emission surge across Chinese provinces (2017–2021).•Projected tripling of data center CO2 emissions by 2050, reaching 430 million tons if trends persist.•Demonstrated 'net-zero emissions' strategy's potential to restrict 2050 CO2 emissions between 11 and 29 million tons. Increased emissions related to China's burgeoning digital economy pose significant challenges. Using a Kaya–LMDI model, this study investigates the driving factors of data-center CO2 emissions in China from 2017 to 2021, highlighting the roles of computing scale, energy intensity, power usage effectiveness, and emission intensity. We find a marked increase in emissions across various Chinese provinces, largely driven by computing scale. While projections suggest that data-center emissions could reach 430 million tons by 2050 (three times greater than 2021 levels), such emissions could potentially be reduced to 11–29 million tons under the “net-zero emissions” scenario. Highlighting the need to mitigate data-center emission intensity, our findings underscore the recalibrations in operational methods, technology, and energy sourcing needed to expedite the transition to net-zero emissions. [Display omitted]