Pathways to Agricultural Decarbonization: Climate Change Obstacles and Opportunities in the US

•The agricultural industry has a significant contribution to the carbon footprint of developed countries.•Decision makers should focus on material sustainability issues within an industry.•Scenario planning can provide insight and preparedness for an uncertain future.•There are viable pathways for the decarbonization of the agricultural industry. This study looks at the agriculture industry in the United States (US), waves of innovation, and scenario planning for decarbonization. First, a review of the field looks at prior work highlighting metrics and goals for decarbonization. We next provide a synthesis of material obstacles and opportunities within this industry sector. Then, based on an understanding of the field, we utilize scenario planning to understand “how can we plan for decarbonizing the agricultural industry in the US in the next 10 to 25 years?” To help answer this question, we identify and rank drivers of change, uncertainty, and impact of these drivers. We then demonstrate how this industry's decision-makers can plan for pathways while navigating obstacles and opportunities to an uncertain future. Finally, we identify four scenarios providing plausible pathways to a future that is different from business as usual and able to generate trillions of dollars of value across industries. The study is with a call to action for decision makers to put this industry on a different path than it has been on for the last 100 years. We see opportunities for researchers to conduct more studies on emission policies, valuing CO2 emissions, along with investments in infrastructure, public-private partnerships, and government incentives for decarbonization in the context of applying scenario planning across industries.