Measuring progress of China's circular economy

As the largest user of primary materials globally China has made a commitment to rebuild its economy to a circular model and to enhance the efficiency of material use, which is spelled out in the Circular Economy Promotion Law. Measuring progress of the new policy requires datasets, metrics and indicators that monitor the performance of the economy regarding the scale of primary materials use, waste flows, and recycling and circularity. We employ material flow analysis, including measures for inputs and outputs, to assess progress of the circular economy in China over time. We find that circularity increased from 2.7% to 5.8% between 1995 and 2015, from an input socioeconomic cycling rate perspective. End of life waste recycling improved from 7.2% to 17% over the same time frame and occurred against the backdrop of a strong physical growth dynamic during this whole period. We present a set of policy indicators and situate them in the context of the Chinese indicator sets for a Green Development Indicator System, the Ecological Civilization Construction Assessment Target System and the Sustainable Development Goals. Moving from an economy based on infrastructure and capital investment production for the world market, to a consumption-based economy, may increase the potential for circular economy in China in the future. The policy indicators can also be used to set targets and create ambition for a swift transition to closed loop urban and industrial systems in China.