Unravelling the jumping to conclusions bias in daily life and health-related decision-making scenarios

Reasoning biases are ubiquitous and may lead to errors in daily situations. Jumping to Conclusions (JTC) is the tendency to reach decisions based on scarce data. This study examines JTC in daily life and health-related scenarios, presenting primarily positive or negative information for decision-making. Two population-based surveys containing an experimental paradigm to measure JTC were conducted in a representative sample (N = 1949) during the first month of COVID-19 confinement. JTC task presented daily and health-related scenarios, providing predominantly positive or negative decision-making information. JTC bias prevalence was significantly higher in daily life scenarios and when deciding with mostly negative information. Specifically, when mainly negative information was available, anxiety raised the JTC likelihood in health-related scenarios, while higher levels of paranoid beliefs increased JTC in daily life-related scenarios. Optimism and age increased the JTC odds in decisions where available information was predominantly positive. Findings highlight contextual and psychological characteristics influencing decision-making in health and daily life issues. •Jumping to Conclusions bias (JTC) may be related to the individual's psychological characteristics.•We analyzed JTC in daily life vs health-related scenarios regarding information valence to decide.•A representative sample answered two population-based surveys during the COVID lockdown.•Different predictors emerged influenced by the type of decision-making and information valence.•Findings identify relevant variables for the design of future JTC intervention and preventive strategies.